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Reliability modelling

Mott MacDonald is a leading consultant in modelling travel time reliability. We carried out research for DfT to model how drivers respond to unreliable travel times which resulted in a new modelling methodology. We also maintain the INCA model for DfT which calculates the economic benefits of measures that reduce the impact of incidents on the reliability of journey times on motorways. We use microsimulation packages and develop CONTRAM, both of which can be used to assess variability in travel times and congestion. In the West Midlands we are responsible for monitoring the Active Traffic Management project, one of its aims is to improve journey reliability. We were also responsible for developing the Journey Time Data Base, a system for accessing journey times, speeds and flows on a link by link basis across the UK from 4 different data sources.

Mott MacDonald is also experienced in public transport reliability modelling and additionally has capability in the provision of Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) assessment services, including:
  • Specification of overall RAM requirements for total transport systems;
  • Undertaking apportionment of RAM targets;
  • Undertaking RAM assessments for all project phases;
  • Developing Failure Reporting and Correction Assessment Systems (FRACAS);
  • Developing and monitoring RAM demonstration tests;
  • Analysing results of demonstration tests.
Particular projects include:
  • East London Line Extension, SRA - development of railway performance criteria (capacity, reliability and availability) to be included in tender documentation. All criteria needed to be measurable to demonstrate operational achievement of performance criteria;
  • Train Availability Study Hampshire, private client - railway operations and maintenance engineering input to a study into seasonal variation in train availability.


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